A few days before the G8 summit ended, the Australian Financial Commission released its Christmas Forecast, and one of the headline stories was the forecast for the economy, as well as for the housing market and business.
In the chart below, the green line represents GDP growth, the red line represents business activity and the blue line represents employment.
The red line is for the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), and the orange line is the Australian Reserve Bank (ARB).
The green line shows the forecasted annual growth in GDP and employment in 2018, and the red is the actual annual growth.
There’s been a lot of uncertainty about the growth in jobs over the past year.
As I write this, the number of people in full-time employment has fallen from a peak of about 30 million people in 2015 to around 20 million people today.
The number of unemployed people has increased from 1.3 million in 2015, to about 1.7 million now.
It’s possible that the number will fall further in the months ahead, as more people have returned to work.
But the ABS figures show that growth has continued to be stronger than expected, with GDP growing by an average of 3.2 per cent a year over the period between 2016 and 2018.
That’s well above the national average of 2.6 per cent.
Growth in business activity has been relatively strong, with growth in new business registrations rising by an annualised rate of 2 per cent over the same period.
The AFR also found that employment growth in the mining industry was more than four times higher than that of the broader economy.
What are the chances of a recession?
There is some evidence that growth in business and household spending is likely to slow down in the next few years, according to economist Peter Diamandis from the Commonwealth Bank.
But the rate of growth in household spending over the last 10 years is currently 2.2 percentage points higher than the rate in the general economy.
This is in line with the trend in recent years.
DiamANDis also notes that the Federal Government’s budget has been doing much better than the Australian economy, with annual growth of around 4 per cent between 2011 and 2015.
Does the G7 look like a good idea?
It depends what you mean by “G7”.
A lot of people are sceptical about the G5.
It includes the US, Japan, Germany and Britain, and they have a very strong position in the world.
It has been called “the globalised world” and “the world’s most powerful club”.
G5 countries have seen an increase in output and inflation in the last two years, and growth in consumer spending, particularly in China.
But if you look at the G10 countries, the OECD has found that growth is below the OECD average, and inflation is higher than it was in 2007.
The UK and the US have a lot to learn from Australia, but the G6 countries have not yet shown a similar level of growth.
Will the G80 get any better?
There is a chance that the G70 will not be able to meet its economic targets, and that could mean that the world’s super-powers will look for a new way of running their economies.
There has been a huge debate over how to finance the transition to a more equitable economy.
The G20 is looking at the idea of using debt markets to fund long-term growth and stability.
However, that may not be the best way to fund a transition to more equitable economies, given that the debts of the super-rich have grown by more than 30 per cent in real terms over the course of the last decade.
It is also worth noting that the IMF has been warning about the dangers of the current system, and has called for the G-20 to come up with a new system to finance debt.
The issue of whether to use debt markets or to create a new, more equitable financial system has been hotly debated in recent months.
If there is a slowdown in growth, will it mean that we’re back to where we were before the global financial crisis?
Or is it possible that things could get better?
There is also the issue of how to tackle the “recessionary momentum” that has been building over the years, fuelled by the global recession, and exacerbated by the lack of structural reforms in Australia.
It is not clear what will happen next.
The G20 has been an important opportunity for the global economy to be better understood, but it has also had its share of surprises.
Will the economy get better in the future?
I’d argue that we are on the right track, and I think we’re heading in the right direction.
I think that there are a few reasons for optimism.
One is that the fundamentals are pretty good.
I think the Australian economic outlook is very